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Chapter 5 : Seoseong Securities Seo Minjae (2)
Chapter 5: Seoseong Securities Seo Minjae (2)
America’s debt ratio had surpassed its GDP.
It was the first time in history.
If it was not resolved by the end of the month, the country would fall into default.
It was the first time in history.
E nu mа̃
To resolve it, Congress had to raise the debt ceiling, but due to the extreme confrontation between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party, budget negotiations were deadlocked.
So S&P stepped in.
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“Designating the United States as ‘under negative observation’!”
It was usually the step right before a credit rating downgrade.
Of course, this too was the first time in history.
[S&P Warns of Possible Downgrade of U.S. Credit Rating]
Ẇ ê b n̄ ǒ v̀е̌ l̇ Е̂n̆u m̂a
The news Lee Jaseong had predicted swept across the world.
Seo Minjae asked Lee Jaseong seriously.
“Do you happen to have connections at S&P?”
“As if.”
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Of course, a warning and an actual downgrade were two different matters.
They might issue only a warning and not actually downgrade it.
W е b̊ n̊о v̀е̌l Ӗ n̂ ūm а
But one thought kept circling in Seo Minjae’s head.
‘Lee Jaseong knew the warning would happen.’
If he had predicted the warning so precisely, then the possibility of an actual downgrade was also high.
Already, the market was shaking uneasily from the warning alone.
If a real downgrade happened?
‘U.S. Treasury bond prices will skyrocket.’
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Only then did Seo Minjae realize what kind of gamble this first deal was.
But strangely enough, it looked doable.
Seo Minjae began to draft a concrete investment strategy.
“How much capital?”
“20 billion.”
Seo Minjae lifted his head with a puzzled expression.
W̄ е b ǹ о v̀ еl Еn ũ m̄ ã
“……Your family office’s assets under management (AUM) are 15 billion, though?”
“Make it 20 billion by using collateral loans too. Set the leverage ratio at three times.”
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“…….”
Going all-in on the first investment and even pulling in debt…….
Still, the conservative leverage was some consolation.
“Excluding margin, the actual exposure position will be 50 billion. When’s the entry timing?”
W̃.е̄b̈n̄o v е̇ l Еn u m á
Lee Jaseong picked up a binder and placed it on the desk.
[US Credit Rating Downgrade Investment Strategy]
“What’s this?”
“It’s not like I was just sitting around. Refer to this for the detailed strategy.”
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While Seo Minjae supported the early operations of the family office,
Lee Jaseong prepared in his own way.
Wе b n̂.о̇ v̌ ë l̂ Е̃ǹ ům̊ а_
Every Friday, he crossed into the future, observed market reactions, came back, and devoted himself to refining the strategy.
Lee Jaseong asked.
“How do you think the market will react if the U.S. credit rating is downgraded?”
“It’ll panic. Panic selling will pour out.”
Later, people would say, ‘U.S. Treasury bonds were angels compared to everything else!’ and they would regain their position as safe assets.
But at the moment of impact,
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the market acted on instinct.
“There’ll be heavy selling pressure on U.S. Treasury bonds. Execute buys the moment the downgrade announcement comes out.”
“Got it. With 50 billion, the volume is on the small side, so we’ll be able to take a position right away. I’ll make sure we buy at the bottom.”
Seo Minjae carefully read through the investment strategy document, adding notes where needed.
‘This is incredibly meticulous.’
Choice of investment products, supplementary strategies using options, scenario-based risk management strategies.
Е̄ n̊ ũm а. ĭd̆
It was detailed enough to be applied immediately in real trading.
As Seo Minjae checked the key points, he tilted his head when he turned the last page.
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“There’s no exit strategy?”
“Ah, that.”
It was information he had confirmed just a few days ago, and he had forgotten to organize it into the binder.
“When the 10-year Treasury yield reaches 1.8%.”
Е̇ ñ üm а
“Got it. 10-year at 1.8……. 1.8%???”
He jerked his head up in shock.
“You do know what percentage the 10-year yield is at right now, right?”
“Was it 3%?”
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“Exactly. At 1.8%, that’s basically cutting the yield in half.”
A drop of 1.2 percentage points.
Ӗ n̈ úm̄а̄
It didn’t look like much numerically, but in the Treasury market, it was an earthquake-level event.
But to Lee Jaseong, it didn’t seem strange at all.
“The moment you execute the investment is the exact moment the U.S. credit rating gets downgraded.”
If the downgrade didn’t happen, the investment never happened.
It was a kind of safety device.
“But if a downgrade happens at all, it always comes with an earthquake. The entire world will rush to buy U.S. Treasury bonds. How much do you think will move then?”
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“At least hundreds of trillions of won.”
“If hundreds of trillions of won join the buying pressure, this level of decline is only natural.”
“…….”
1.8%. Seo Minjae, who had been filling in the blank with notes, stopped his pen.
‘The U.S. Treasury yield gets cut in half?’
It didn’t make sense, but…….
Ӗnu m̊ ӓ
The more he listened, the more plausible it sounded.
The magic where the most nonsensical thing in the world became the most natural thing in the world.
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Seo Minjae made one last probe.
“……It has to hit exactly 1.8%, right?”
Nod.
At that unlucky chin gesture, Seo Minjae sighed and left a note on the last page.
Ẅѐb́n̆o v ӗl̆ Еn̆ u m а
Liquidate at 1.8%.
There was no compromise.
How did I end up getting tangled up with this bastard?
“You really seem crazy.”
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“I know.”
“…….”
Е n̊ú m̈ â .і̄ d
The contract between the two was as follows.
Seo Minjae would support the investment.
Lee Jaseong would support the succession.
Seo Minjae faithfully carried out his role, and now it was Lee Jaseong’s turn to fulfill his obligation.
“First, go around noisily bragging about landing your first deal. And while you’re at it, casually leak the U.S. credit rating downgrade issue as well.”
Seo Minjae was flustered.
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It was essentially asking a client to leak their own investment details.
“……Is that really okay?”
“It has to be done.”
“What do you mean?”
“Seo Minjae. The U.S. credit rating downgrade and the deterioration of Yuseong Group’s corporate bonds aren’t separate events. Think about it. If the U.S. credit rating gets downgraded, how do you think the corporate bond market will react?”
A downgrade of the U.S. credit rating created a massive shockwave.
W̆е̃ḃn̂ o v е̌l Еñ u mа
A flight to safe assets occurred, the stock market would crash, and the bond market—
“Investors will naturally start liquidating risky assets. And the first things to get sold will be…….”
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“Yuseong Group corporate bonds.”
That was exactly what would happen in the future.
Investors flocked to safe assets to reduce risk, and risky assets were dumped one after another.
The one that took a direct hit was Yuseong Group’s corporate bonds.
Е̇ nu ḿ â . і̀ d
Under normal circumstances, weaknesses did not surface easily.
But once the tide went out, every flaw was revealed all at once.
“They’ll fall into distressed bonds in no time.”
Seo Minjae swallowed hard.
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The contract they had signed was not simply a deal to provide each other with services.
Lee Jaseong’s investment and Seo Minjae’s succession were intertwined.
Ẇ e b̀ nò v̂е̇ l Е n̊ ûm а́
Only by trusting his investment strategy could Seo Minjae’s own card come alive.
“Who led the distressed corporate bond investment?”
“Seo Minju.”
“And you?”
“I put my name on it too. I was on the Investment Review Committee at the time.”
It was exactly as Lee Jaseong had confirmed in the future.
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If Yuseong Group’s corporate bonds were judged to be non-performing bonds, someone had to take responsibility.
And that person would—
‘With high probability, be Seo Minjae.’
Seo Minju would try to pin it on Seo Minjae.
Since Seo Minjae’s name was also on the investment, it would be even easier.
“You can’t undo the fact that you were involved in the investment. So you should step up first and spread the risks of Yuseong Group’s corporate bonds everywhere.”
Ẇе̄ b n̂ ô_vе́ l Ë ńum̌а
“Openly tell people to cut their losses?”
“And one more thing. If you warn that the corporate bonds are risky, how do you think Seo Minju will respond?”
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“She’ll act defensively. Since it’ll look like an attack on her performance, she might even try to defend them.”
“That’s it. Take the opposite position from Seo Minju. Then a clear contrast will form in people’s perception. Seo Minju defended the distressed corporate bonds, while…….”
Lee Jaseong met Seo Minjae’s gaze.
“Seo Minjae warned about the distressed corporate bonds.”
Е nùmá. і ď
A chill ran down his spine.
He finally understood what the consulting he had received really meant.
“Then when problems blow up later, I can avoid responsibility.”
“Of course. Everyone will think it’s unfair to hold you responsible.”
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“Wow…….”
Letting out a long breath mixed with relief and awe, Seo Minjae thought,
Е n̆ ũ m̃ ӑ
‘What would’ve happened if I hadn’t gotten consulting from Lee Jaseong?’
“Thank you.”
Lee Jaseong accepted the thanks with a light nod.
The next day.
Seoseong Securities began to buzz.
The PBS department had landed its first client.
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And it was a deal worth a whopping 20 billion won!
The rumor spread without much effort.
That was because Seo Minjae had been rushing around handling things, stirring up multiple departments such as the legal team, risk management team, compliance team, and bond team.
“Wow, he lands a deal in just two weeks.”
“I guess even a half-baked chaebol is still a chaebol. Connections are……. Gahk!”
“Ahem. Department head, good morning.”
Е_n̄ u̇_m̀ а..і́d̈
An employee coughed awkwardly and greeted him.
Seo Minjae was standing in front of the coffee machine.
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He pretended not to see the person whose foot he had stepped on and smiled broadly.
“You’re all here,”
“I heard your first deal was 20 billion? Congratulations. But what kind of strategy was it that you took our guy with you?”
The one who casually struck up the conversation was the bond team leader.
Е n umá
Since U.S. Treasury bond trading was needed, Seo Minjae had borrowed a trader from the bond team.
Curious gazes gathered at his question.
Seo Minjae smiled and dodged the answer.
“I can’t say that. It’s client confidentiality.”
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“Come on, you borrowed our guy. Just give me a little hint.”
After an awkward refusal, repeated requests, and several rounds of push and pull.
W̃ eb̌ n оv́e l̀ Еň uḿа̄
Seo Minjae let out a sigh as if he had no choice.
“This is a secret that only you should know, team leader.”
“Ah, of course. What do you take me for? I won’t tell anyone.”
Seo Minjae was certain that the story would spread among the department heads before the morning meeting even began.
“It’s a U.S. Treasury bond buying position. The client is betting on a U.S. credit rating downgrade.”
“A U.S. credit rating downgrade?”
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The bond team leader’s voice rose.
Seo Minjae quickly brought his index finger to his lips.
“Team leader. Shh.”
“Oh—sorry. I do know that S&P issued a downgrade warning, but will they really downgrade it? Up until now, the U.S. has always compromised at the last minute. I don’t think it’ll go all the way to default, but…….”
“I thought so at first too. But after seeing the materials the client showed me……. Ah, no. Forget I said anything.”
Seo Minjae waved his hands and changed the subject.
Ё n ù m̆ а . í d
That only amplified the curiosity.
He could see people at other tables subtly shifting their chairs.
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The bond team leader spoke with an earnest expression.
“I really won’t tell anyone. If something happens to U.S. Treasuries, our bond team could get turned upside down.”
Seo Minjae was certain that this information would spread throughout Seoseong Securities by the end of the day.
After letting the tension build, he dropped the information.
Ẽń u m а
“Honestly, it’s because of the corporate bond market.”
“What?”
“To be frank, who really knows whether the U.S. credit rating will be downgraded or not?”
“That’s true.”
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“But just the possibility has already made the market unstable. And then the corporate bond market will take the first hit. Especially corporate bonds with high debt ratios, like Yuseong Group’s, will have trouble with repayment.”
“Yuseong Group corporate bonds? Are you sure?”
Ёn̆u m̂ а̇ . їd
“No, I’m just using it as an example. What in this business is ever certain? I’m just saying it might be good to adjust portfolios a bit more conservatively.”
“Ah, right. Given the situation, it’s better to play it safe. Anyway, thank you.”
The bond team leader hurriedly stood up from his seat.
And just as expected.
Before the morning meeting began, the information spread to all the major departments.
The possibility of a U.S. credit rating downgrade.
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The resulting deterioration of corporate bonds.
The research department began reexamining S&P’s downgrade warning.
The risk management team conducted stress tests on the corporate bond portfolio.
At the trading desk, discussions on hedging measures began.
And that evening.
All of these movements reached Chairman Seo’s ears.
Е̌.ñüm̆ а̀ . і d
“Bring Seo Minjae here!!!”
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